We are trying to forecast for clients and candidates who will thrive in a particular organization.
work that heavily informs this effort:
Superforecasting take away: The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement. It is roughly three times as powerful a predictor as its closest rival, intelligence. Specific experience is of no statistical significance.
Career anchors take away: A career anchor is the one element in your self-concept that you will not give up, even in the face of difficult choices. Being in a situation not compatible with your core values results in significant loss of morale and productivity.
Schwartz Theory of Basic Values take away: Values can the measured and are the most persistent personal attribute through adulthood. Successful groups strongly exhibit similar values.